Global Political Risk Briefing, August 8, 2024

1.  Iran and Israel (Counter)

Iran ≠ Palestine. In his speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on July 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu equated support for Palestine with support for Iran. But global and regional audiences don’t buy the black and white paradigm. Instead, they appear able to be sympathetic toward Palestinian civilians, angry with Israel over civilian casualties, and wary of Iran risking a broader conflict all at the same time.

In a special briefing, we previously noted that global audiences’ increased support for Palestine and ire toward Israel did not coincide with greater favorability of Hamas. Similarly, our data now shows that higher support for Palestine has not translated into more favorable views of Iran. 

Meanwhile, Netanyahu, whose approval ratings were at all time lows from April-June 2024, has seen his support bounce since early July, putting him in striking range of his highest approval levels thus far in 2024. The aforementioned address to the U.S. Congress surely helped.

Going forward, the assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh may also assuage some domestic frustrations over Israeli intelligence failures which allowed for the Oct. 7 attacks, giving Netanyahu an additional boost. This is a dangerous dynamic, as it incentivizes Netanyahu to take actions he believes will aid his political survival, even if they escalate the conflict. We expect to see more of it in the coming weeks and months.

2. U.S. Foreign Policy (Consensus)

A middling menace. While the Biden administration continues to express concern that the Israel-Hamas war may escalate into a broader regional conflict amid rising Israeli tensions with Iran, our data affirms that many Americans don’t see resolving the conflict as a priority nearly one year into the war. As we forecast in January — and as we noted last week in our midyear geopolitical risk outlook — the share of U.S. voters citing the issue among their top five foreign policy concerns has fallen three spots, from sixth to ninth place, as domestic issues like immigration and drug trafficking continue to predominate. 

Americans are similarly downweighting the conflict when it comes to their 2024 vote choice: The share of voters citing it as “very important” to their vote is third from the bottom, alongside other foreign policy issues (e.g. the war in Ukraine, and U.S.-China relations).

Americans’ concerns about national security — which they care far more about, specifically in the context of the U.S. elections (71% cite it as “very important” to their vote choice come November) — suggest one way to square the circle: by tying America’s security more closely to that of Israel’s in the minds of domestic constituents. Yet barring more direct risks to U.S. assets, whether military or civilian, which make the national security risks both clearer and more tangible, we expect those trying to emphasize the importance of the conflict to voters will need to work harder to convey the stakes.

3. United Kingdom (Consensus)

Stymied Starmer? Less than a month after taking office, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing his first major test after misinformation in the wake of a knife attack that left three children dead sparked waves of anti-immigrant riots across England. His net approval rating, which hovered around 20 points, immediately began to slide and currently sits just above neutral. 

Starmer is inheriting an issue not of his making. Net migration to the United Kingdom was unusually high in 2023, despite then PM Rishi Sunak’s promises to “stop the boats.” The previous government’s failure to do so is playing into the current discontent: Our data shows the share of U.K. adults saying they disagreed more immigration would be a good thing began rising in mid-2023, such that by early 2024, a majority consistently shared that view. While disinformation claiming the knife assailant was an asylum seeker was the spark, it landed in a pre-existing powder keg of popular anger.

Whether the problem is of Starmer’s making or not, it’s his to manage. His Labour government has cracked down hard on rioters in the short term, seeking to restore order. But the underlying societal issues and anger at previous government inaction will take more time, and finesse, to address.

3. Nigeria (Counter)

Youth in action. In a previous briefing, we predicted additional unrest and instability would hit Nigeria and Bola Tinubu’s administration. The president’s scrapping of a costly but popular fuel subsidy and dismantling of a parallel exchange rate system sparked some of the highest inflation in decades, and stoked a growing cost-of-living crisis, with  food inflation often a precursor to violent protests. At the same time, insecurity has been rising once again in the volatile northwest. This has come home to roost, with young Nigerians taking to the streets. 

Nigeria’s youth are not uniquely angry. Their disapproval of Tinubu has moved in tandem with other Nigerians’ dissatisfaction with government policies. The net share of Nigerian adults who say their country is headed in the right direction now hovers around -70 points (see second chart below). But with a large youth bulge, a higher youth unemployment rate, and the Kenyan Gen Z protests as a model, our data confirms that young Nigerians are more disaffected than most, adding context to their leading role in recent anti-government protests. 

Tinubu, a professional politician who won only about one third of the popular vote, has moved to make concessions by implementing a minimum wage, and has tried to organize ethnic and religious leaders to encourage their networks to stay home. So far it hasn’t been enough to quell the demands to “end bad governance” and, relative to one year prior, our data suggests there is substantially more ground for Tinubu to try to make up.

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